Market Insights

The economy has grown significantly since the last time it experienced a recession. Household incomes and financial savings stand at all-time highs, underscoring the strength of the past few years. Even faced with formidable headwinds-including wars, inflation, bank failures, and trade tensions-this expansion has endured and, more recently, even accelerated. Upgrades to GDP, fueled by improved capital investment and consumer spending, have reinforced this resilience.

Investors closely watch quarterly GDP reports to evaluate the strength and direction of the economy. These reports influence market sentiment, shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and offer valuable context for corporate earnings forecasts and portfolio decisions. The second-quarter GDP data showed a significant upside surprise, with the U.S. economy growing at an annualized rate of 3.0% from April through June.

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), long a Republican policy goal, officially became federal law on July 4, 2025. In late June, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed to send the finalized legislation to President Trump before Independence Day, after the Senate passed its version. He delivered on that promise. The bill narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House with a vote of 218–214.